Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
