Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
